ITouchd0wnThere has beaten the desk's franchise six times in seven meetings, two of them openers. The projections say this is the week that changes, and the desk knows what its projections did last Sunday. Also: five starters on a bye at press time, four on one roster, and Josh Allen projects for 24.3 on jsdivine's bench.
Filed Wednesday night, after the morning's waivers cleared. The league spent $44 of FAAB before breakfast, and at least four lineups changed between Tuesday and tonight. The numbers below are a snapshot, and Thursday night is the first lock.
Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco are off. That leaves five starters on a bye at press time, and four belong to one team. Every projection below is given two ways, as set with bye players at zero and as it ought to be. Thursday's Green Bay–Carolina game locks a few slots early.
For five weeks Jordan Love scored on this bench. Last week he started and scored 20.96, and at press time he is still starting, projected for 17.9. Josh Allen is back from the Buffalo bye and on the bench, projected for 24.3. The bench quarterback file has turned inside out. James Cook (16.1) is also on the bench, next to Cam Skattebo, Wednesday's $22 claim, who is on the Giants' bye. Jaylen Waddle is questionable at press time and starts. Three Packers start, and all three play Thursday night. As set: 123.8. Fixed: 135.5.
The carousel is back in service. Trevor Lawrence returns from the bye (20.8) and sits, Drake Maye starts (22.3), and for once the projections agree with the screen. The only defense on the roster is San Francisco's, which is on bye and starting. Last week it scored −1.00, so a zero would be an improvement. Jahmyr Gibbs and A.J. Brown are questionable at press time and start. Devaughn Vele, 16.40 on the bench last week, is on the New Orleans bye. As set: 123.8, to the decimal where jsdivine's lineup sits. Fixed: 124.6, still with nothing at defense.
Desk pick: jsdivine, by 10.9 with Allen in. As set it is a dead heat, and the desk does not pick dead heats.Six wins in seven meetings, including the 2022 and 2024 openers. Wednesday's waivers brought Caleb Douglas ($15) and Geno Smith ($0), and both start: Smith at quarterback (16.9) over Caleb Williams (16.0), Douglas at receiver (7.9). Trey McBride projects for 19.0, the best tight end number on the board. Chris Olave is on the New Orleans bye and correctly benched. Jonah Coleman starts at FLEX (7.8) with RJ Harvey (8.4) on the bench, which is as close to a lineup note as this roster gets. Emeka Egbuka is questionable at press time and on the bench. As set: 111.6. Fixed: 116.5.
Disclosure: the desk's own franchise, with three straight losses and a new policy of reading the bench as well as the rows. Lamar Jackson is off injured reserve and on the bench, questionable at press time and projected for 20.5. Jayden Daniels starts at quarterback, projected for 20.1. That decision is four-tenths of a point wide and will be made Saturday. Bo Nix was released to make the room. Kenneth Walker (20.8) and Ja'Marr Chase (19.8, questionable at press time) lead the projections. KC Concepcion, 23.20 on the bench last week, starts at FLEX. Dalton Kincaid is back from the bye at tight end and questionable at press time. As set: 124.4. Fixed: 126.4.
Desk pick: D1LLIGAF, by 9.9. The desk is picking itself for the first time in three previews, against a 6–1 series, one week after its own call scored 12.40. The ethics office has asked for this to be noted.Three byes land on this roster. Christian McCaffrey and Nico Collins are both on the bench, and so is Tyler Shough, which settles the quarterback room for a week: Dak Prescott starts (22.0). Tuesday's two Out tags are down to questionable, and Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Warren both start, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown, also questionable at press time. Jaylen Warren is the only other running back with a game. Jalen Coker plays Thursday. The lineup as set is already the best this roster can field: 118.3 either way.
Brock Purdy is on the San Francisco bye, so the chair gets the week off and Matthew Stafford starts (17.4). Puka Nacua projects for 22.4 and Zay Flowers for 18.3. Michael Wilson (13.6) moved into the lineup at FLEX, and Breece Hall, questionable at press time, sits. Wednesday's waivers added Jordan Mason and the Cincinnati defense, which starts. Colston Loveland, 19.90 on the bench last week, plays Monday night behind Brock Bowers. As set: 132.5. Fixed: 132.6.
Desk pick: jgirsby, by 14.3. Tuesday's margin was 24.9; the questionable tags did the rest.Tied for first. The lineup moved since Tuesday: Parker Washington (15.4) and Rhamondre Stevenson (13.6) are in, and Tetairoa McMillan (14.7) and DK Metcalf are on the bench. Stevenson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 45.90 on the bench last week, and one of them has made it out. Bijan Robinson (20.0) and Ashton Jeanty (15.9) lead the backfield. The Patriots defense (7.3) still sits behind Minnesota's (5.5), and Jake Elliott, the Monday kicker pickup, still sits behind Jason Myers. As set: 122.2. Fixed: 125.1.
Four starters are on a bye: Brandin Cooks (San Francisco), Dalton Schultz and Ka'imi Fairbairn (Houston), and Isaiah Likely (Giants). Aaron Jones starts and is questionable at press time. Wednesday's waivers did not help: a $7 bid on Caleb Douglas lost to ITouchd0wnThere's $15. The bench has one tight end and the Jacksonville defense with games this week, and no receiver or kicker. Bryce Young starts again (16.9) over Kirk Cousins (14.2), and this time the projections side with him. As set: 59.5. Fixed: 69.7, with three slots nobody on the roster can fill. Free agents are still available until kickoff. sammyyy29 won this meeting last year by 31.46.
Desk pick: divinethought, by 55.4 on the lineups as they stand. The desk would still like that number to be a typo by Sunday.Coming off 169.38, the week's high. Woody Marks and George Kittle, both on a bye and both starting on Tuesday, have been benched. Stefon Diggs (12.0) and Saquon Barkley (11.2) are in, and Barkley and Rashee Rice are questionable at press time. Joe Burrow starts (22.2) over Patrick Mahomes (15.8). Brandon Aubrey projects for 9.4, the best kicker number on the board, and the belief system takes that as scripture. As set: 116.0. Fixed: 116.3.
The only roster in the league that planned for this bye a week early. BrennaLynne added the Kansas City defense on Sunday afternoon with Houston's off week coming, and Michael Penix, 26.40 on the bench last week, starts for C.J. Stroud. Malik Nabers is on the Giants' bye and benched. Matthew Golden is questionable at press time and plays Thursday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects for 23.6, the best receiver number on the board. As set: 109.5. Fixed: 111.9.
Desk pick: mmcatee01, by 4.4. On Tuesday this pick needed two bye starters to come out of the lineup. They came out.Five lines for the group chat, all of them checkable:
The desk will not be taking questions. It has read the rows, and this week it is reading the bench too.